China’s new energy auto market also showed many new trends in 2020 and worthy of our in-depth analysis. At present, the 2020 domestic market analysis is based on the sales volume. However, we can know through common sense, selling a price of 30,000 yuan Mining MINI EV and a 300,000 yuan Tesla Model 3 The impact of the company’s financial performance is very different. Therefore, the analysis based on sales revenue can bring more valuable information. But you want to collect all companies’ revenue data is very difficult, especially for the vast majority of non-listed companies, their financial data is not open to society. Therefore, we must find a set of alternative methods to estimate the business income of each company as possible.
Revenue estimation = annual sales x (higheted price + minimum price) / 2
Here we will take the above calculation method to estimate the sales revenue of each model in 2020 in the style of the model sales and models, and then in accordance with brand or group companies. The sales of models will use multiplier data, so it does not include imported new energy models, and the sales price refers to the first power network data. According to this method, we estimate the market size of 2020 domestic new energy vehicles is approximately 23.13 billion yuan, and 35% increase from 171.2 billion in 2019.
It must be emphasized that such estimates are not accurate. The revenue data estimated by this method is not much practical in absolute values, but there is a certain reference value in comparing the relativity of different brands or company income. For example, Tesla release shows that its business income in the Chinese market is $ 6662 million, about 43 billion yuan. The revenue estimated by the above method is 47.6 billion yuan, and there is approximately 10% of the error with the actual situation. The ideal car has just released annual financial information, and its annual car sales revenue is about 9.3 billion yuan, with a 10.7 billion error of our estimate of approximately 15%. Although there is a small error between the estimation value and the reality, the aggregate gap between the two brands reflects the actual revenue gap and can be performed. In order to be able to compare different companies at the same scale, we will unify the estimation method, and do not correct some company revenues in accordance with the official announcement. The following information about the estimated data is based on this way. Through, this will be described, for reference only.
Domestic new energy car system pattern
From sales data, new energy car brands leading or participated in the operation of China, including autonomy, new and joint venture brands account for nearly four-quarters of the market, and won the dominant leadership in the domestic market. However, from the perspective of revenue, the market share of China’s brand has fallen to less than 60%, of which the self-owned brand share is about 34%; the new forces have a small growth, and 20% share; The joint venture brand has the largest, only 5% of the market share, and is in the end of the overall market.
In all foreign brands, the US and German revenue share have a certain size volume, of which the US is the highest, and the German is. In contrast, other European brands and Japanese and Korean brands are located in the new energy vehicle market, and the revenue shares are only about 3% respectively. Such market performance is clearly fascinating to the Japanese brand in the fuel-fuel field. In 2020, each car is displayed in the domestic market, which has shown unique development trends, and we will further explore details in the following text.
Change 1: Mattheal effect is remarkable
Sort by the revenue, Tesla is undoubtedly the biggest winner in the Chinese market in the 2020, only a model of more than one-fifth of the market share. The top four brand revenue is more than half of the total, the top ten brands have accounted for nearly three-quarters, and the remaining nearly 60 brands can only share a quarter of the market share. The 11 to 20 brands have their own than 1% to 2%, and the last 48 brands share less than 1% respectively, and the market share is clearly concentrated to a small number of head enterprises.
Such “strong people stronger” Matthew has a lot of probability in 2021 will continue to strengthen, and the root cause is that the head enterprises can transform the revenue to continuously improve the resources and services, while there is performance It can be more convenient for foreign financing to further expand the advantages in the market. Conversely, the last sector is lacking the necessary financial support, maintaining basic operations and difficult, more difficult to have more powerful to improve their competitiveness. Enterprises that have a certain advantage in the traditional fuel trass can subsidize new energy services, and companies that lack other revenue sources, especially new companies have to finance resources to continue to develop resources. Therefore, in a quite long time in the future, the significant Matthewa is probably the normal state in the market.
Change 2: High-end, especially new domestic new brands
The average price is calculated from the total sales price of the entire new energy vehicle, and the average price of new energy vehicles in 2020 is 197,000 yuan, up 17% from 168,000 yuan in 2019. It can be seen that the new energy automotive industry has a high-end trend as a whole.
Further observation of the number of sales models and revenue in different price ranges in different price ranges, it can be found that the revenue of independent brands and joint venture brands focus on medium and low-end markets, especially for joint venture brands, the biggest The revenue is from the market block below 50,000 yuan, which is the car system that is most focused on the low-end market. Japanese and Korean brand models are all concentrated in the price range of 15 to 200,000, specializing in the mid-range market. The non-Deo brand is in the middle market overall, but the high concentration of the Japanese and Korean sector is different. There are two leading brands in the European sector pull the revenue center to pull up and lower two ends, including Walvo although overall sales Not high, but with high unit prices have achieved a certain high-end market share; and Mercure is a pretty medium and low-end market share through a selling model EZS. The US and Germany continue to represent high-end consumer markets, continuing the market position in traditional fuel trains. Such a low high-high car system is basically in line with the long-term pattern of the domestic auto market, and is not unexpected in the public. The biggest surprise comes from the domestic new forces brand. Their models are widely distributed in various price ranges, and the revenues are concentrated in the middle and high-end, with a 20% revenue of 20% in 14% sales, without doubtingly got the high-end market. Admission vouchers, the market share is close to even more than the traditional high-end bus lines of the United States and Germany, which has become the main force towards the high-end army. Such a trend is primarily derived from the brand strategy of new forces headers. It has chosen high-end brands, and positions themselves as high-end brands, and the average price of models is more than 300,000 yuan. At the same time, the monthly sales of the two companies have risen in 2020, thus promoting the entire sector. High-end. Xiaopeng Auto also adjusted the strategy to a certain extent in 2020, and did not continue the medium and low-end routes of G3, but through P7 to high-end, it also occupied a certain high-end market share. The example is the Weima car. Due to the insufficiency of the low-end route, the product is insufficient, Weima’s revenue growth has gradually opened the gap with the three head new forces, this year, Weima’s monthly sales is even more Which car is surpassing, the previously accumulated first-handed advantages have no longer exist.
However, with the hot sale of Wuling and Ou, the medium and low-end consumer market began to speed up, and due to the limitations of the market size, the high-end market share is not possible to expand for a long time, and the high-end trend in the whole industry will soon encounter. ceiling. Therefore, the development between the future new energy vehicle markets will become more balanced.
Three changes: all deposits are differentiated
In 2020 China’s new energy vehicle market, each car system showed different trends, and all dimensions have different degrees of differentiation, and evolved in the dynamics. Therefore, we will analyze the specific circumstances of each car plant sector, try to explore future possible development of the context and overall pattern.
Independent brand – share waist
In all the lattice sections, the self-owned brand is the only sector that decline in revenue. The annual revenue fell by 27% in 2019, while the revenue fell from 63% last year to 34%, nearly wax. In all independent brands, BYD’s revenue has slightly fell from the previous year, but still occupies nearly half of the market share. Guangqi Eman is the only major brand of revenue growth, and the annual estimate has risen by 58%. The Northern Stroke New Energy Camp with the largest decline has reached 82%, and the brand revenue ranking is from the second bit to the 15th. The decline in the performance of Beiqi is actually signs, because the sales volume of Northern Automobile New Energy Automobile has rely on large customers with commercial B2B, while private users of B2C are significantly lower than other brands. Such market strategies have indeed supported performance in previous years, but with the gradual saturation of commercial sectors, Beiqi’s sales performance is also a broken cliff. In order to get rid of the brand image of “taxi”, expand the private user market, Beiqi fully enable new car standard “beijing” in May 2020, but this kind of practice is inevitable, there is a suspicion of “replacing the soup without changing the medicine”, market feedback is not ideal . Beiqi is currently intended to hop the hopes of the private user market in the best fox brand, and thus actively cooperate with Magna, Huawei to build a smart automobile platform, whether such strategies can be subject to the market to see the actual sales data.
Another large-scale business that is remarkably declining is Geely. The five brand revenue estimates of the Saji Group fell by 34% over the previous year, which is unmatted with the image of the brand rise of Geely in the traditional fuel trass in recent years. Geely currently takes “Car Sea Tactics” in the new energy sector, with the most five brands and 19 models of the industry account for 3.2%, but still behind only one of the ideal cars in the sales model. . Among them, the Volvo brand market share has the highest ranking, located in 17th, the rest is Geely (20), geometric (23), lead (41), Maple Leaf (47). The biggest problem in the New Energy field is the lack of fist products, but there are many models without selling. The new energy brand “geometry” “Geometry” “Geometry” “Geometry” “Geometry” are not ideal. Not long ago, Geely announced two important decisions. First, the new “Blue Geely Action Plan” was released, prepared for the establishment of a new intelligent pure electric car company; the second is to announce the merger of Volvo, which is important The goal is to jointly develop the next generation of electric vehicle modular architecture. These two decisions can be considered to be as determined by Geely tried to develop new energy vehicles through the integration of the group’s internal resources. For autonomous brands, except for the company’s internal integration, there is also a considerable necessity of external integration. There are currently a wide range of new energy motors of the current self-brand, but the sales volume of most brands is very low, and some of the annual sales of some brands are only hundreds of districts. It is basically not commercial value, but it has taken a part of the market share. Therefore, if the self-owned brand wants to do a strong, better service public consumer market, the integration between the brands is inevitable. When such an integration starts, who starts, integrating the object, and what impact on the market pattern will require further observation.
New brands – high songs
In addition to the high-end trends mentioned above, the revenue share of new brand sections is also expanded is also a major variable in the 2020 new energy vehicle market. As the emerging power in the market, the new forces have been controversial from the beginning of the birth, and the sound of singing is endless. However, the new forces have handed over a bright-eyed achievement in 2020, and the revenue has risen by 152%, and the share has increased from 11% last year to 20%. Such a real statement, even if there are still many shortcomings, the new forces are still in some things, they can achieve such market results. In the representative of it, the domestic new forces generally re-investment technology research and development, and the customer service is improved while improving the product. This new consumer ecology is characterized by emphasis between social interactions. Whether it is online or offline, there is a close interactive relationship between manufacturers and customers, and there is a close interactive relationship, which creates the previous car business model. Powerful users are viscous. I believe that through continuous improvement of product layout and expanding the global market, new forces can become a pioneer in China’s car to the world, and such a new customer service model may also become a new business new year film in China’s automotive industry.
Joint venture brand – grow down
The joint venture brand is the exploration of China and foreign joint ventures. This exploration process has begun in the fuel-saving era, but from the results, many joint venture brands have fallen out of the market, and most of them are lacking in the market. sense. The only exception is the Wuli brand under SAIC and the Baojun brand. From a series of “national gods”, the sales miracle of Wuling Department has continued until the new energy field.
Since August 2020, the monthly sales of Wuling Hongguang Mini EV is high. In January this year, he became the world’s best-selling new energy model. However, the official price of Hong Kong Mini EV is only 28,800 to 388 million, almost the lowest price in the market, so the proportion of revenues is not large, which belongs to the market strategy of small profits but quick turnover. Of course, there are also joint venture brands to break the low-end magic curse, launch an impact to the high-end market, and the typical case is the teeng brand. Teeng is the marriage of Germany’s high-end brand Mercedes-Benz and independent new energy leader BYD, gathering the high-end brand appeal and leading new energy automobile technology, which can be said to be all-in-market, but always take the Dongfeng of the market. Sales have not been warm. The Japanese joint venture brand focused on the mid-end market is subject to the hesitation of the Japanese in technology route. The lack of new energy technology platforms, Guangzhou Automobile Toyota and Guangqi Honda can only use Guangqi Eman Aion S technology platform changing production pure electricity Models, the market acceptance is still to be observed. Therefore, the joint venture brand sector is still very long-termized, and the probability of changing the mid- and high-end development is still in the whole, and the probability of changing in 2021 is small.
American brand – giant spray
In 2020, the largest blenders from the domestic new energy automobile market from the United States Tesla, domestic MODEL 3 triggered a car tide at the beginning of 2020, and sales have been high, and Tesla has also become the highest year. s brand. Under Tesla’s power, the extremely micro-brand sector in the new energy field has increased by more than 10,000, and the share has increased from a few points from a few. However, in addition to other traditional American brands other than Tesla, there is still a slow action in the new energy field, and there is no tree. In 2021, Tesla did started domestic MODEL Y in the Chinese market, and its pricing was considered to be lower than the market universal expectations, so sales expansion is a general probability event. Relying on two high-end best-selling models, Tesla is expected to continue to dominate China’s new energy auto market in 2021. In addition to Tesla, the sales of Buick Microslue 6 pure tram type in the United States in the United States have grown slightly, and the revenue ratio of Tesla will have further increased further increase.
Germany brand – ready to go
The German manufacturer is a strong in the traditional fuel-saving field. It has high-end best-selling brands represented by BBA, and has long-term deep-moving Chinese markets, with good reputation and sales foundation. In the field of new energy, the revenue of Germany has risen slightly, and the fourth largest lattice sector in the Chinese market is stabilized. Carefully observe the model brand model, you can find that in addition to the Mercedes-Benz completely relying on EQC Pure SUV, other German brands have greatly dependent on the advantages accumulated in the traditional fuel-saving field, and the best-selling model is more fuel. The plug-in mixed or pure electric version of the model is freshly developed. The most representative of this is the BMW car. In 2020, the new energy sales in the 2020 BMW are all supported by the plug-in mixing model, of which 5 series plug-in mixing models are more than 90%, which can be described as “a strike. Eat all over the sky.
However, this trend will change in 2021. A series of domestic-yielded domestic chemicals of the new ID pure electric family in the public brand, and each family brand actively promotes the listing sales of its pure electric platform models in the Chinese market, including Audi E-Tron, BMW IX3, and Mercedes-Benz EQ Many subsequent models of the family. These new models are generally facing the medium and high-end market. If it is possible to achieve breakthrough in sales in 2021, the market share of the entire German brand will inevitably expand. It is believed that the reputation and customer base relying on long-term accumulation, and the German brand can also occupy a place in the field of new energy.
European brand – China’s leading
In addition to other European brand sections other than German brands, it is actually dominated by China, mainly by the British Brand of SAIC and the Swedish Brand of Geely Swedish Brand Volvo. The other three legal brands are in this sector. The market share is only about 1%. In fact, returning to the European local market, the new energy of the legal brand has always been a good performance, Renault Zoe’s annual sales defeated Tesra Model 3, and became the sales champion in the European market in the European market. Although the legal brand is very catering to Europe’s home market demand, there is often water and soil in the market outside Europe, the main reason is that the two-star small cars exceeded outside Europe in Europe, while mainly The products of the medium and low-end markets lack price advantages in competition with domestic and low-end small micrometers. This is a long-term issue in the global competition of the legal brand, and it is unprofable in the short term. Therefore, the European brand sector is not changed in the 2021 probability of the labeling pattern.
Japanese and Korean brand – Jedi survival
The Japanese brand has strong competitiveness in the traditional fuel trass, accounting for the market share of medium and low-end markets, and impacts high-end markets through Brands such as Lexus, and has achieved a small performance. However, in this wave of electrical technological innovation, the Japanese brand is subject to the technical route of hydrogen power and pure electricity, and its market share is significantly different from the performance of the fuel stroke. The Japanese new energy models on the market are mostly traditional fuel vehicles, and the oil-modified pure tram type. Many brands have even need to introduce pure tram types with the Chinese technical platform of joint ventures. Therefore, the Japanese The transformation is still facing more difficult.
The Korean brand initially followed Japan’s pace to develop hydrogen kinetic technology, but seeing the rapid development of Tesla on the pure electric technology path, the transformation speed of Korean enterprises is generally faster than Japanese companies, modern Kia accelerates a number of New energy models have achieved good results in Europe and the United States. At the same time, modern also launched the IonIQ pure electric technology platform, and released the model based on this platform. It is necessary to invest faster than Toyota’s E-TNGA platform, so the new energy field may become a Korean brand catching up. A new opportunity. Just in the Chinese market, the situation of the Korean brand is not as good as it, and the medium and low-end markets of its main attack have a large number of Chinese domestic brands to participate in competition, so the Korean brand and even the Korean section of the Japanese and Korean sectors are facing comparable. Difficulty.
From the trend described in our previous article, it can be found that the most bright eyes in the 2020 domestic market is the new forces of China and the United States, including Tesla, Wei, Xiaopeng and so on. These companies revenue growth leads leading to other competitors, and also has a favored market value in the capital market, which can be said to be the biggest winner of the 2020 new energy auto market. Unlike traditional automotive industries through hardware development and fixed asset investment, new forces are more important than software research and development and ecology, more is to redefine the car through software and Internet technology, the most direct reflection is new The automatic driving technology of the forces, whether in the technical grade, driving performance is a comprehensive leading traditional car company. On this basis, the new forces generally take the subscription model to provide users with automatic driving and other value-added services, such as the propelled BAAS battery rental, cattle house community, etc. The advantage of this business model is that sustained cash flow can be produced, so the growth potential is huge, and there is also potential to establish a soft service ecology and become a stable revenue growth point. In contrast, the profit model of traditional cars is only simple product sales, lacks sustained cash flow. Therefore, according to the valuation logic of the capital market, more valuation of the new forces is more than the high-tech enterprises in the goggles, Apple, rather than Toyota and the public.
From the hardware definition of the car to the tide of the automotive industrial intelligent tide of the automobile industry through software, it is largely because of the technical nature of the new energy smart car, and put the automotive industry from the tradition The manufacturing is upgraded to a high-tech industry. In the future, innovative companies that can innovate in all areas such as technology, services, business models will also lead the new wave of industrial change.