This Monday, it saved an eye-catching 2020 Q4 and annual financial report.

The specific numbers can look back in our Monday’s financial report, today’s article, we hope to discuss some “second time” to think of the details will be discussed.

Whether in the financial documents, Li Bin is in the conference call, it is faintly about about a while in the “thinking”. Of course, the intelligent electric car industry has been changing, but this time, it seems that you will see the steps of the steps and even walked in the place.

After the conference call, Li Bin left many suspensers in the world, and the theme of our article today is to interpret these suspense.

On the other hand, 2021 The automotive industry continues to usher in severe test, battery, and chips continue to be out of stock. The stock price callback after the proposal is released, and some extent also reflect the cautious attitude of capital on the short – term development of the automotive industry. Is it ready to respond?

Start immediately.

NIO and its sub-brand

When the financial report was opened, Li Bin said that the JAC plant expansion is in order, it is expected that the year can reach 150,000 units in the end of this year, and the annual production capacity of 300,000 times.

In 2022, 300,000 annual production capacity was achieved, probably 7 times the sales volume of 2020, even caught up with Tesla’s 2019 – and two companies were 11 years.

Combined with Li Bin’s “ET7 orders beyond the expectations of all our people”, the goal of 2022 goals refers to the year-on-year growth – from the pricing of ET7 and 150KWH batteries, this may even be average unit price and Double growth in sales.

More exciting messages are not limited to existing models.

Li Bin’s first answer in the Q & A link of the earning report, it directly exploded: “(Sub-brand) We are in terms of possibilities, but he also said that” NIO will not enter the public market. “

This means that there is a play for “from top to”.

“From top to”, it is more like a mobile phone circle, or a play of the Internet era. Like glory, the red rice is millet, and even a small tea and so on. The brand fission in the traditional auto industry is concentrated in “from bottom to top”, such as the Japanese three giants Lexus, singing, and infiniti. Let’s talk about “on”: Enteruring 2020, the high-end positioning of the awareness is gradually firm.

According to the data of the central government, in the city of China GDP, the total sales volume of ES8 2020 reached 8032, and the Audi Q7 of this level of fuel benchmark model is only 5143.

If the sales of each city is fine, ES8 dominates in 15 cities, even in the first fifteen cities, only in Chongqing, the sales of ES8 is slightly less than Q7.

This is also in line with Li Bin’s “three-way world”, from sales, it has already had the ability to correspond to the model PK BBA.

2020 Chengdu Auto Show, it is officially released EC6. The third car with the NP1 platform also triggered extensive discussion. Li Bin’s sentence when the auto show accepted our visit – “Electric car is a single motor is rogue”.

Later XPT factory group visits, Qin Lihong added this to supplement: “You have to sell three or forty, 500,000, and do a single motor, it is really a rogue.” At that time, he received 300,000 + pricing, dual motor “Hold a high play” strategy, now look good.

As of January 2021, the average price of 42 + million yuan NP1 platform has achieved 17.2% of the average gross profit, “selling cars to make money” has been fixed. In terms of sales, even 339,900 yuan “stone breaks” models of Model Y, the ES6 / EC6 has little effect – can be seen from the 2nd month before 2021.

But another fact is also obvious: as of 2022, it is still a “only” car enterprise in “only”.

Even if Li Bin has promised that the NP1 three SUV will be upgraded to NT2.0, but “upgrade” is not equal to the “expansion”. Although ES8 / ES6 / EC6 / ET7 can fight with BBA, Li Bin, “three-point world”, is still unsatisfactory – because the car is not enough. In addition to playing Q7 5 series, it is also required to have an iPhone 4 level, straight-up 3 Series / A4 / C level “Street car”, this is “down”.

“Down” has many kinds of play, Tesla chooses new models with brand, and then beyond the S-class / GLS in millions of Model S / X sales, decisively abandon the “luxury” people, resulting in 200,000 levels MODEL 3, this is a classic case. But it is a company that tends to make users “choice”, rather than letting users “accept”. “Can chargeable can be upgraded”, the initial version of the initial ES8 released in 2017 to 84/100 / 150KWH three battery packs, long-liver-rent BAAS … in the business logic of it, “users There is a principle of high priority.

Such principles will definitely lead to different voices, surrounding different options, issuing different questions; but as far as the result, it is necessary to use the car, use the car two dimensions, it has proved that the smart electric vehicle can strive to strike Fuel car.

Li Bin said that there is a possible “sub-brand”, which is also a potential “choice”: NIO brand maintains average price of 40-500,000 levels, undertakes the banner of the technology and innovation, adhere to BBA, and even Luhu Porsche User market; sub-brand is responsible for the amount, and enjoy the priced bonus after the development cost is diluted.

Although it is only “possibly possible”, it is not tried to play similar “sub-brand”.

According to Li Bin said, after experiencing Changan, Guangzhou Automobile, “The share rati of their partnership has dropped below 5%.” The road to the popularization of the general, Li Bin finally decided to hold it in his own hand, “This is also a long-term strategy.”

Just, how should this card beat? It will not officially enter the 200,000 yuan market, what kind of model layout can support the “small goals” of the three people world? I hope we can get more messages next time.

AD as a service

On January 9th, the ET7 “is born for automatic driving”, the first showed the muscles in the field of automatic driving research and development. As with ET7, it is an essential NAD (Nio AutoMous Driving).

11 4K cameras, 1016TOPS’s 4 NVIDIA ORIN chips, currently around the world, the most clear mass production laser radar, all of which are included in the ET7 price of 448,000 yuan.

The only unbained, it is software.

It is officially announced in the ET7 conference: “Hardware standard, service subscription”.

For new users, NAD charges 680 yuan per month, about 8160 yuan a year, 10 years full of 81,600 yuan. NP old users subscribe to NAD only 30%, which is all open for 10 years, less than 25,000 yuan.

It is important to “all open” two words – users can independently decide whether the month is still not open, I want to give money, I don’t want to use it, I don’t have to give money – it is “user has a selection” lead product thinking.

Li Bin also expounded the starting point of the software subscription at this week’s earning report: “It will maintain the reasonable gross profit of the whole vehicle. AdaAs’ income will be the increment of gross profit. AD As a service’s income is a source of our gross profit, This is a more sustainable model. He did an example in the meeting with Amazon, Google and other network giants. It is considered that subscription cloud service is a stable growth engine of these companies.

really? Just in February, Google and Amazon released 2020Q4 and annual financial reports.

Among them, Google Cloud service revenue is $ 3831 billion, an increase of 47% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate of more than 40% is maintained in the fourth quarter, which has become an important driving force for annual growth of 12%. The subscription revenue from Amazon contains a year-on-year increase of 28% year-on-year, and the two giants have maintained more than 20% of subscription camps in the last three years.

“Subscribe” is a very internet vocabulary, which rarely appears in traditional car manufacturing – because the focus of subscription income Cover is not hardware cost, but software costs.

On August 15, 2020, the editor-in-Chief of American media Cleantechnica and CEO Zachary Shahan mentioned Mask’s brochure in the article: “The Autopilot team has about 300 engineers, of which 100 of the chip design team, more than 200 software teams. – The internal code is the ‘Jedi Engineers’.

Named the most important organization in “Star Wars”, it can be seen in the status of Software Engineers in Tesla.

From the 2016 Testra Autopilot, the car enterprise automatic driving research in the past five years is the surface, and the trend of the era of deeper is “software definition car”. It is an example of this sentence.

Starting with 2020 Q3, the determination of “full stack self-study” is more and more determined, and it is more and more obvious. For example, the white sword is served as a serving team VP; and Ren Shaoqing joins the Vice President of Assistant Assistant, and set an algorithm team in Beijing.

Ren Shaoqing

It is also a team of “Jedi Samurai” teams. Behind the development of the team is, it is the cost of software R & D. With the advancement of automatic driving, it will only grow larger and larger in car enterprises.

We take Waymo that rushes L5 across the car. As of 2020, 350 from the 610 engineers of Waymo came from the software team. From Google Split for less than 4 years, Waymo burned $ 3.5 billion, an average of $ 900 million per year – to the L5-level automatic driving investment, or even the entire main plant.

Say the cost problem, you can say anything else.

Li Bin describes the expectations of NT2.0 models in the earning report: “We will not do some decline in the initial vehicle gross profit from the sales model of Ad AS A Service, we will still maintain a reasonable vehicle gross profit.”

The order of ET7 “Overchau is coming to any car”, indicating that the NT2.0 platform sells the car to make money, but the follow-up R & D, functional upgrade, as mentioned above, the cost will become higher and higher This is the characteristics of the automatic driving era, even the public also gives VW.OS a budget for hundreds of billions of euros.

On the one hand, the top hardware, “for automatic driving” goals, and the soul of “User Enterprise”, the other side is gradually climbing software cost, and it is necessary to take effect and just right programs.

Or is it dominated by “user has selection”. In fact, before the AD AS Service software subscription, it has tried the “subscription system” of the hardware level. That’s right, it is Baas.

In addition to “Can Expressible Upgrade”, Baas exists, is “lower test error cost”.

70kWh battery is not enough, can be upgraded; not 100KWH battery, you can rent it. Users can find the best way to use their best use at a lower cost, rather than paying huge costs, and found that the teeth were biting.

The same logic is also presented in the AD AS Service. Hundreds of dollars of costs, more than tens of thousands of entry, the help of Take Rate is obvious. At any time, I will renew it at any time is the bottom of the user. The owner does not have to worry about “on the wrong ship”, and it is only necessary to concentrate on the function.

This is Service.

“Core” crisis

This topic is recently especially fire.

The “core” first refers to the battery, and our previous two days have been discussed.

Li Bin revealed at the Jidu’s Financial Report, and the cost of the three-yuan lithium battery will have a decline in this year, but the amplitude will not be large, and the quality of raw materials will be encountered in the short term.

Coincidentally, Mask is also revealed at the end of last month, and will be put in more regions to use the LFP battery’s Model 3 standard life-saving model, and “nickel is the biggest problem of current lithium battery capacity, so we have begun to put standard battery life-saving Iron battery.

Another “core” refers to the chip.

On February 21, the Volkswagen Group said that there are currently 93,000 8-generation golf positive crisis that is continuous shortage of chips.

According to CNBC’s report, the Advisory Agency AlixPartners said that the global automotive industry will face $ 60.6 billion in the revenue of $ 60.6 billion due to chip shortages, accounting for 10% of 2021 global auto demand.

According to Reuters report, there are four months of chip stocks, and Toyota, which is relatively conserved in the chip field, may be the only “smoothing” car company. CNBC believes that other host plants will face “white blade war” for competing for chips.

What should I do?

Li Bin’s expression is quite Versailles: “We can only reach 10,000 months through certain production lines. But limited to supply chains, we can only maintain 7,500 capacities in the second quarter, estimated July The capacity of the supply chain can be followed up. “

This means that the “production capacity of sales” mode is the exemplary, in the second quarter, it is possible to override 22,000 cars in the case of supply chain, which has increased by more than 110% from 2020. Waiting for it.

Where is the next step?

“Three points of the world”, this is Li Bin accepted the CCTV interview, used to describe the words of the relationship with the BBA, and he was confident and determined.

“BBA and Lexus, there are them in the city of 4S shop, we will build a store” This is the expression of the 2021 propagation plan at the Li Bin Company.

In January, it can be said to be “selling out” in Shanghai, whether it is more than 400,000 or more than about 300,000, and it is not bba.

Creating a luxury car brand belonging to China, this is the signal that is free from the release of the free 2021. However, from various details, it will also reveal more ambitions – the software subscription as a gross profit increase, and “It is possible” to launch a sub-brand, 300,000-level annual capacity goals, etc.

Where will the next step in it, there is still unknown.

However, from this financial report, this venue is coming, Li Bin is not a “small rich” person, and it will not be a “small rich” company.


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