For the global new energy automotive industry, 2020 is full of magical realism. From an opening, there was a global new championship broke out, making production and sales in the year of the two-double fell into the valley, and the monthly sales continued below the same period in the same period throughout the year. However, since the second half of the year, the new energy market began strong rebound, and the monthly sales increased by more than 50% year-on-year, and the fourth quarter exceeded 100%. In the context of nearly 15% of the overall automobile market, 2020 global new energy vehicles still achieved significant growth in 43%, reversed the pessimistic expectation in the beginning of the year.
The outbreak of market sales is also reflected in the capital market. The market value of new energy car listed enterprises has doubled from the second half of the year, and the industry leader Tsra has become the highest worldwide car company. At the same time, through this capital sought after, many new energy new energy companies are also listed in US stocks in the second half of 2020, and a new energy car capitalization is produced.
In the face of such dramatic changes, public opinion has also produced different voices. It is seen that many people cheer the market prosperity. If the spare person thinks that the capital bubble breaks sooner or later, the current prosperity is only the illusion of the capital for “cut the leek”. Therefore, what happened in 2020 in the new energy vehicle industry, what is the cause, which variables have emerged, and what possible continuation trends, and what kind of pattern can help us better understand the development trend of industry At the same time, it can also be more active forecasts and respond to the new energy auto market in 2021.
Global New Energy Automobile Industry Pattern
According to McKinsey, the latest electric vehicle index (EVI) released in July 2020, it can be found that the global electric motor industry presents four sectors. Combined with the 2018 EVI data, you can get a changing picture in recent years.
The first large sector is China. China has become the largest new energy car producer in the world with the largest new energy automobile capacity and the most complete supply chain system, which has a largest new energy car production country, a large leading country. Many multinational companies have begun to expand the global market with China’s industrial capacity, export China’s electric vehicles, such as Tesla 3 exports the Model 3 produced by Shanghai factory, and BMW has also produced new IX3 through Shenyang factory. Pure electric SUV and returned to Europe, China is accelerating with this wave electrification wave to become a car exporter. In 2020, China has also developed in the market side in the case of maintaining powerful production capacity, in accordance with the new ranking of McKinsey EVI is the world’s fourth, leading many developed countries.
The second largest plate includes Germany, the United States, Japan, South Korea, five automotive industrial powers in France, has a certain scale of new energy automobile capacity and market. With the outbreak of the European market, the two European main auto produce countries have some degree of development in 2018, especially in the two dimensions, in the two dimensions. The United States and South Korea are in a certain adjustment phase, and the growth is slightly smaller in two dimensions. The new energy vehicle capacity of Japan has declined by 2018. On the one hand, the reason is the continued shrinkage of the national market. On the other hand, there is also repeatedly falling in the market in the international market.
As the country lack of oil resources, Japan has long been starting to lay out new energy automobile technology, but Japan chooses the technological development plan of the ultimate hydrogen power transition from hybrid power, and the technology path of electrification is mainstream in the mainstream direction of Testla. Different. At present, the mainstream development direction of global new energy vehicles clearly disrupted Japan’s long-term layout, which makes Japan can’t accept this trend more and more irreversible. If the electrical route ultimately replaces Japan’s technical solution, it will cause a large number of heavy costs of the Japanese automotive industry that cannot be converted into commercial returns, so the Japanese industry has considerable contradiction in the development of electric vehicles. The most typical manifestation is that Toyota Auto President Toyota Men has repeatedly publicly expressing the development of pure electric vehicles, and still hopes to hop the attitude of hydrogen power vehicles. Despite nothing, Japanese companies have also begun to invest in electrification technology, Toyota has released the E-TNGA pure electric platform, and Honda seeks to produce pure tram types using General Company’s technical platform. However, considering the current progress of these projects, the overall recession in Japan’s new energy vehicles is still in the probability of continuation in 2021.
The third largest plate includes two countries in Italy and India. These two countries have a certain size of automotive industrial capacity, especially Italy, and their own automotive industrial strength is not weak. However, in the new energy vehicle, Italy and India have a low degree of development in industrial capacity or market demand, especially when facing a large-scale economic recession that is impacting new crown epidemic, its new energy vehicle capacity is significantly shrunk, showing The vulnerability of its industrial system.
The last large sector is consisting of some countries that do not have new energy vehicle, but there is a major demand for new energy vehicles, mainly including Northern Europe, Western Europe, and Canada and other developed countries. These countries have a small population, but the overall economic level is very high, and the residents have strong environmental awareness, so new energy vehicles in these countries have high penetration. The most typical representative of this is Norway, according to the data released by the Norwegian Road Traffic Information Committee, its 2020 only pure electric car sales account for 54%, and the proportion of new energy vehicles is as high as 74%. Located in the world. Some countries in this section have a certain scale of traditional automotive industries such as Sweden, England, etc., but their own market volume and supply chain are difficult to support industrial transformation. By relying on the supply system near the region, these countries can expect these countries to have new energy vehicle capacity in the future, and the supply of regional markets has a certain supplement. Change 1: European market sales broke out
The greatest change in the 2020th global new energy vehicle market is the outbreak of the European market. In the case of a holistic car sales, the sales of new energy vehicles has risen by 137%, and China has become 2020. The world’s largest regional market.
The European market can achieve such bright eyes to benefit from two main factors: supply rises and subsidies increase. Since Europe’s major countries have announced the timetable for the ban, the earliest is 2025, and the latest for the latest for sale in 2040. Under such stress, launching new energy models as soon as possible is an inevitable choice for European automakers. According to the incomplete statistics of the industry research institutions, there are at least 25 new energy models in the European market in 2020, of which Volkswagen ID 1.3, Peugeot E-208 and Volvo XC40 plugged over mixing models have entered the top ten sales. The same as the top ten Renault Zoe and modern Kona have been more than 100% sales, and the increase of NiRo has reached 208%. Only the first ten models sold, contributed more than 470,000 sales, accounting for 34% of the overall sales. Therefore, the increase in the supply of new energy models provides more choices to consumers, which in turn stimulates the outbreak of market sales.
On the other hand, in 2020, the main European countries generally improve the government subsidy of new energy vehicles. Taking Europe’s largest auto consumer Germany as an example, the 2019 federal government only subsidizes models for selling prices in either euros, the highest subsidy amount is 2,000 euros; but from November 5, 2019, the highest government subsidy amount is increased. 6,000 euros and the price limit of the applicable subsidies has increased to 65,000 euros; in order to cope with the influence of new and new energy auto markets, from June 3, 2020, the highest amount of government subsidies further increased to 9,000 euros. Representatives in Germany, Europe has increased government subsidies for new energy vehicles, and promoted further enlargement of new energy vehicles sales.
Can Europe’s sales outbreak growth last until 2021? First, since the fuel-saving time has been determined that the process of traditional car manufacturers launched a new energy model will not stop. The German manufacturer represented by the Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz released a new pure power platform, and exposed a number of new energy models in R & D testing; the manufacturer of legal system represented by Renault and Peugeot was also good at The small electric vehicle sector continues to force; the Japanese and Korean system represented by modern, Nissan will continue to post new models to consolidate the market status; Tesla, the leader of the global electric vehicle, is also stepped up construction Berlin factory, planning The strategy of production expands the market share. Therefore, in the next period of time, the new energy vehicle supply in the European market can meet the significant growth of demand.
However, in terms of government subsidies, according to the experience of the Chinese market, the current high subsidy policy is afraid that they will remain long. With the continuous rise in sales, the government’s financial pressure is increasing. Many national financial conditions or countries in which the country lack new energy vehicle capacity will be the first to reduce or even cancel subsidies. The Netherlands have announced programs from 2020 to 2025 to cancel financial subsidies. Of course, Germany is a high subsidy policy that Europe’s main new energy car producer is still possible to maintain a period of high subsidies. In general, the European New Energy Automobile Market in 2021 will continue to grow high growth trends in consideration, but in the face of the expected expectations of subsidies, the growth rate of sales of sales of the sales of 2020, there is a growth rate of more than 100% in 2020. Quite difficult.
Change 2: US market giants “monopoly”, growth slowdown
Unlike Chinese Europe, the new energy vehicle sales in the US market have grown slightly 4% in 2020. Although the world’s third largest market is maintained, sales of global proportion of sales from 14% in 2019 to 10%, with The gap between the China European market is further expanded, and such a result is clearly not commensurate with the identity of the US car electrification tide.
From the US domestic situation, in addition to the impact of new crown epidemic is still fermentation, in 2020, the Chinese Trump Government supports the support of traditional fossil energy industries and the negative attitude toward new energy technology. A certain negative effect. At the same time, as sales reached the limit, Tesla and General Motors federal subsidies were also canceled before the second quarter of 2020, which necessarily limited the continued expansion of some market share. In addition to the impact of the Environment and Policy, Tesla is also unfavorable in the United States in the United States. Tesra’s sales account for 60% in the US market, and if only considering the proportion of pure tram-type sales, it is more than 80%. In addition to the brand appeal, this is almost the one-on-monopoly market status of Tesla’s electric drive and automatic driving technology, which is also known for its extensive, exclusive, in terms of Tesla layout. Super charge network construction. Since Tesla’s super charging is only for this brand, other brands of electric vehicles cannot be supplemented by Tesla superchart, so consumers tend to choose Tesla when considering charging convenience. However, such a large number of market patterns make the “monopoly” enterprise lack the initiative of product quality, and on the other hand, other manufacturers lack the driving force for sustained competition. Many traditional car giants have continuously accelerated new energy models in China and the European market, but in the face of Tesla, a large number of new energy models will face high-end risk, so these manufacturers are treating The problem of new product is extravagant. For example, only Audi in the German BBA puts pure tram type E-TRON into the US market, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have not launched a pure tram type in the US market. This leads to the number of new energy models in the US market, far from the two major China-Europe market, and the problem of supplying diversification will further limit the prosperity of the market. The author will also share our personal experience in buying new energy cars in 2020 to see the situation facing consumers in a large market environment.
As far as the current information, many traditional car manufacturers in 2021 will launch a new pure tram type in the United States. If the public ID. 4 will be available in the United States, and some new US new brands also plan to deliver mass production in 2021. The car, so in this year, a large situation in this year may be relieved, but because the huge gap between Tesla and the later persons cannot be bridged in a short time, it is difficult to change fundamental changes. According to the analysis of the most important commodity base price evaluation agency S & P Global Platts, the US market can achieve more than 1 million annual sales until 2025, which will be 3 million in 2030, and reached 6.6 million in 2035. . Therefore, although the US market is facing a series of problems to grow in sales growth, there is still a lot of growth potential for a long time.
Three changes: the market value of listed companies, capitalization acceleration
In 2020, the outbreak of the new energy automotive industry is not only reflected in the sales volume rise, but also reflects the market capitalization of the capital market. The most representative of this is Tessela, its company’s market value has increased by nearly 6 times in the year, reaching an amazing $ 631.3 billion, has become the highest market value of the world.
Among all companies that have already launched new energy vehicles as the main business of new energy vehicles, Tesla, which occupies nearly three-quarters of the total market, is the absolute capital king. The remaining nearly quarter-market value is divided by the head of the four Chinese markets by Wei Si, BYD, Xiaopeng, Ideal. Other listing new companies are only 2% of the market, and there is no sense of existence of about 2% due to lack of sales performance. It can be seen that the Mattar effect of new energy vehicles in the capital market is very obvious, and the market value is concentrated to a few head enterprises, and the actual sales revenue is an important reference indicator.
In this year, in addition to the skyrocket of new energy automotive enterprises, the capital market has also been launched in the second half of the year, including domestic new forces head enterprises Xiaopeng and ideals. Once the two companies have triggered the market, the increase of the market has reached 200%. After a series of adjusted, the rise of about 90% is also achieved by the end of 2020, which can be said to stand in the capital market. . In addition to Nikola, the remaining four newly launched US New Corporations fell below the issue price due to the technical fake scandal, and the market value of other three companies has risen by about 30%. If you take into account these companies are listed by special purpose acquisition (SPAC), the market value of SPAC Shell has begun to rise, and the actual increase in the market value of these companies should be higher than the market value of official merger. . Therefore, it can be said that the entire industry in 2020 is in the wind of the capital market, and it is sought after.
After entering 2021, the new energy vehicle investment boom in the capital market has a certain level of cooling, especially in the near future, the stock prices of each listed company are sharp. In the last month, the stock price decline in Testra has exceeded 20%, and the stock price of other new energy automobile companies is similar. The author believes that there must be many irrational factors in the investment boom in the new energy vehicle industry last year. The market value of new energy automobile companies has been largely separated from the performance fundamental, and the global economy is still dragged down from the new crown epidemic. In the context, such adjustments should be considered a normal phenomenon, and the market value of the entire industry in 2021 does not lack the driving force for sustained significant rise. For the current new energy vehicles currently listed or the operation status and plan of the listed enterprises, the new models with large-scale delivery potential in 2021 have only the Chinese market in Tesla domestic MODEL Y and the US market Lucid Air, Others The company can only enhance performance by excavating sales potential of existing models, lack new performance growth points. The traditional car giant represented by the public plans to launch a variety of pure tram type to the global market in 2021, with a certain sales outbreak potential. Therefore, 2021 new energy car companies market-speaking probability will not continue the sharp rise in rising in 2020, but the contrary, some of the transformation of traditional auto companies or will be more favored by the capital market.
Through the 2020 global new energy automotive industrial pattern and market trend, we have seen the entire new energy automotive industry and its broad prospects, although it is full of problems, but still grows strongly. Leading this trend is not a developed country in the traditional giant company and the automotive industry, but does not have a new forces in traditional car backgrounds and China in traditional automotive sectors. Just like in the Aviation Sea era, it is found that the new mainland is not a national advanced fleet of the world’s most powerful country, but a few small wooden boats supported by the national royal family of Europe. From Nikon Canon to replace Kodak Fuji, Apple Hua is replacing Nokia Motorola, and then goes to the e-commerce rising impact entity retail industry, and modern commercial society has repeatedly repeated such a fact. It can be seen that in the face of unknown, direction and determination is often more important than both strength.
Next, we will analyze the pattern of 2020 domestic new energy industries and market trends with the same idea, and see what opportunities and challenges in the future as the global industry leading sheep.